Inflation Rising | Presented by: Encon Commercial
STEP ON THE GAS
Inflation worsens as midterms and Fed meeting near
Nick Iluzada
For the sixth straight month, inflation outpaced wages. That’s just one of many data points from the Labor Department’s latest piping-hot inflation report that dropped yesterday, with the Federal Reserve’s next rate-setting meeting and the midterm elections just weeks away.
Top-line inflation for September rose 3.7% from a year ago and came in above economists’ expectations. The core consumer price index, which strips out food and energy, also exceeded forecasts, climbing 2.6% on an annual basis.
Energy costs, driven up by the war in Iran, appear to be starting to flow into other areas:
- Gasoline prices surged 9.1% between August and September and were up 34% over the previous year. The cost of heating oil, which is very similar to diesel fuel, has skyrocketed 74% compared with the same time period a year ago.
- Transportation costs are up 0.6%. Food prices remained flat, but experts are wary that businesses will pass on higher shipping expenses to consumers by increasing food prices, something PepsiCo said last week it will do with its snacks and sodas.
The AI buildout has also led to an increase in the cost of chips and semiconductors, which led to a 9.7% rise in the price of computers, peripherals, and smart home assistants compared to a year ago. A Goldman Sachs report this week estimated that the buildout is responsible for nearly half a percentage point of the annual inflation rate.
How will the Fed and voters react? The odds of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh announcing a quarter-point interest rate increase when the Federal Open Market Committee convenes on Oct. 27 and 28 went from 22% to 35% after the inflation data was released, per FedWatch. But raising borrowing costs might have little effect on the buildout of AI hyperscalers working toward huge profits in the future. Meanwhile, affordability is considered a major issue for voters ahead of the midterms taking place on Nov. 3, which could make it harder for Republicans to hang on to power.—DL
